We Need Your Help To Keep Schools Open---November 2, 2020
Dear Families,
I am writing to you to ask for your assistance in helping us keep our schools open. Today, Governor Baker held a press conference in which he stated he wants schools to stay open. He went on to say that based on the data, schools are not super spreaders. In order to slow the spread of the virus, keep schools and the economy open, he issued the following executive orders. Information from DESE and the State tell us that the spread is not happening in schools but at restaurants and small social gatherings. One of the many reasons for these new restrictions is to help keep schools open for our students.
The Douglas Public Schools use several data points to monitor the spread of the virus. In addition to this, we remain in contact with our local Board of Health and others to assess the situation. At the start of the school year the School Committee adopted the following metric as a guide to determine which model of learning the Douglas Public Schools will use.
This is just a guide and several additional factors can and will play into moving from one model to another. The guidance we have received from DESE is that without a significant incident, districts must be in the “red” for a minimum for 3 week before moving models. We want to stay open for students, but we also must be mindful of the data and safety. Below is a snapshot of the data the last four weeks.
Douglas Cases per 100,000 (As of October 29, 2020):
It is important to note that the State tracking lags behind real time tracking. At the time of this publication the Commonwealth reported 9 active cases. According to our local data, we have 14 active cases. There is a VERY strong probability that the Town of Douglas will be in the “red'' next week.
Area Communities Cases Per 100,000 (As of October 29, 2020):
These include Webster, Sutton, and Uxbridge
According to this chart and metric the average of these surrounding communities have been in the “red” for three weeks. The data in these three communities continues to fluctuate but it may be weeks before they are no longer in the “red” as a whole.
7 Day Weighted Average of Positive Molecular Test Rate (As of October 29, 2020):
Although the State and Douglas are well under the 4% to move into a remote platform, the data has close to doubled in 4 weeks.
The following are some other key data points that are tracked. Although they do not tie into the guide that was approved by the School Committee, they are helpful in understanding the impact on the community.
Daily Positive Test:
Massachusetts Communities in the “Red” (As of October 29, 2020):
There are 121 communities (⅓ of the State) in the “red” this week (October 29). This represents a 57% increase from last week in which there were 77 communities. Two weeks ago there was a 22% increase in “red” communities (63 to 77).
The rates are increasing at a significantly faster rate the last two weeks. Baring a significant event locally or in the State, if the data continues to trend in the current direction, the Douglas Public Schools may be forced to move from our current Hybrid Platform to a Remote Platform; this is not something any of us want. We have been fortunate as a school community that we have had minimal cases involving students and staff, but this could change at any minute. I want to be proactive and inform everyone of what may happen. We will continue to monitor the data and speak with public health officials regularly. We will follow the guidance from the State and DESE, but we will also do what is right for Douglas and for our students and staff.
I am asking that everyone does their part to prevent the spread of the virus, this includes but is not limited to wearing masks, practicing social distancing, good hand hygiene, and making good choices when gathering. As the weather is changing and with the holidays around the corner, I ask for your help in helping us keep schools open.
Respectfully,
Paul D. Vieira, Ed.D
Superintendent
How is the data calculated?
Cases per 100,000:
This data is based on the average daily cases per 100,000 residents, each city or town has been designated as a higher risk (red), moderate risk (yellow), or lower risk (green) community. Communities with fewer than 5 cases are not given a designation. The average daily incident rate per 100,000 is calculated the following way:
Total Cases over 14 days in Douglas (4 cases)
Total Population in Douglas 9250 (This is taken from UMass Donohue Institute)
4 cases x 100,000 = 400,000
400,000/9250 = 43.24
43.24/14 days = 3.08 daily incident rate
Area Community Cases Per 100,000
The cases per 100,000 of each of the three communities are added and then divided by three.
7 Day Weighted Average of Positive Molecular Test Rate
This is a weighted 7 day average and it counts all Molecular Tests that are Positive and counts the total number of molecular tests performed. This includes individuals who have had more than one molecular test.
Daily Positive Test
This is calculated as follows by dividing the total new daily cases by total daily tests.
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